In a hypothetical head-to-head between Joe Biden e Donald Trump in the 2024 elections, the incumbent president would obtain 42 percent of support against 51 percent for his predecessor. This is according to the latest survey developed together by the US broadcaster "ABC" and the "Washington Post", with an increase of three percentage points for Trump and a decrease of two for Biden compared to the previous survey in February. The Democratic president loses points both on the economic management and on immigration fronts, with 44 percent of survey participants believing that under his mandate they will live in worse financial conditions than before. A figure, observe the analysts of the two broadcasters, never so high since 1986 for a president in office. To date, only 37 percent of respondents say they approve of Biden's performance, while 56 percent disapprove.
On the management of immigration at the border between United States and Mexico, Biden's rating is even lower. Only 23 percent of those interviewed are in line with Biden's choices, while in terms of a general evaluation of his work, as many as 74 percent of the survey participants are convinced that Biden is too old for a possible second term, a feeling up six percentage points compared to last May. Mature age, however, is also an element underlined in the case of Trump, considered too old to run again by 50 percent of those interviewed. From the ABC/WP survey However, a strong anti-Biden sentiment emerges, to the point that in the event of the fall of the government, 40 percent say they would place the blame mainly on him and the Democrats in Congress, compared to 33 percent who would hold the Republicans mainly responsible. Respondents who say they voted in 2020 report supporting Biden over Trump by 50-46 percent, very close to the actual result of 51-47 percent.
In retrospect, Trump's image appears improved. Forty-eight percent of those surveyed said they approved of his performance as president, although polls at the time had him supported in polls by 48 percent. Just as many (38 percent), however, say they disapprove of him today, a figure that appears to be down from the 49 percent of voices who criticized him in January 60, when he left office. According to "ABC" it is in any case noteworthy that Trump continues to spark a certain debate on his performance as president, despite the fact that as many as 2021 percent of Americans interviewed firmly reject the "tycoon's" belief that the elections of 60 would have been stolen from him: only 2020 percent think that Biden did not win legitimately and a further 29 percent do not express their opinion.
Ahead of November 5, 2024 – date of the 60th US presidential election – and even before the primary elections expected at the beginning of the year, Biden will not have an easy game in any case. In the survey, 62 percent of Democratic and independent respondents are convinced that the party should choose another presidential candidate, while only a third remain loyal to him. If the desire for a different candidate is numerically high, the analysts observe, the outcome nevertheless remains in line with the results of the last year (from 56 to 58 percent) and does not give clear answers as to who the alternative should be. In an open-ended question, 8 percent of respondents expressed a preference for Vice President Kamala Harris, the same percentage for Senator Bernie Sanders and 7 percent for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of former President John Fitzgerald Kennedy. A generic “someone else” garnered 20 percent of the vote. As for Trump, the former president enjoys much broader intraparty support: 54 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents favor him for nomination in the “Grand Old Party.” (Gop), once again similar results to previous results and well ahead of its opposition. His main rival and current Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, has 15 percent support, down from 25 percent in May (when the survey question was asked slightly differently, ed.).
In terms of sampling, the ABC/WP survey was conducted from 15 to 20 September on a random sample of 1.006 adults. Respondents were contacted by telephone, in English or Spanish. Of the total respondents, a sample of 25 percent with a Democratic preference, another 25 percent with Republicans and 42 percent with independents was selected. The results have a margin of sampling error of 3,5 percentage points.