The sharp drop in gas prices in Europe since the end of 2022 is extremely positive news for our economy and for all European ones. If inflation fell instantly, thanks to this drop, the economic scenario could be considered normalized. This is what emerges from the forecast report “The Italian economy between rate hikes and high inflation” created by the Confindustria Study Centre.
One of the main delays - notes the Confindustria Study Center -, although variable in its length due to the continuous evolution of economic systems, is precisely that relating to the transmission of changes in international energy prices to consumer prices. Gas, which has fallen to around 50 euros/mWh, from over 330 at the daily peak in 2022, has certainly facilitated the decline in inflation. But we are only at the beginning of consumer price moderation, both in Italy and in the Eurozone, and the process will take time.
Italian household consumption will remain almost stationary on average in 2023 (+0,2 per cent), below the inherited drag thanks to the good dynamics in the central part of 2022. Furthermore, this year the highest rates for home loans and consumer credit will play against spending on goods and services. Only later, in the wake of the slow decline in inflation and, therefore, a recovery in real income, will consumption grow again, from the second half of 2023 and, with more momentum, in 2024. Even total investments - specifies the Confindustria Study Center - they are expected to grow slightly on average in 2023. The reasons are the withdrawal of tax breaks in the construction sector and the impact of more stringent financing conditions. The annual figure hides, as for consumption, a very weak start in 2023 and a subsequent recovery, which will then continue more quickly in 2024. But the pace will remain far below the great vivacity recorded in 2022, linked precisely to the investment boom in construction.
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